Bertha Update

[SamFamAustin]

As many of you know, Tropical Storm Bertha is spinning around in the Atlantic. I decided maybe the "rant" section is good because I don't want to scare people like with sharks or bad airplanes, and we should be aware of such things.

Originally, Bertha was supposed to be a "fish storm" that headed north to die in the cold water and high pressure north of the Azores. Boy did she fool us! Currently the maps show a path in between the Bahamas and Bermuda, by Thursday drawing closer. However, these long-range trajectories are just educated guesses, depending on how strong the storm gets.

The only "good" forecast so far is that with warmer water, about a degree per day as it moves WNW, and very low wind sheer, the storm should become a full hurricane. The latest guess-work is that if is stays a moderate hurricane, Bertha will continue on a westerly track; if it intensifies to Category 3 or more, it will recurve to the north and head out to sea as a fish storm. Some prognosticators think this is a "Carolina storm" but I'm smarter than that - it's like predicting a spinning top on a table.

Relax. I'd just make sure I had water, plywood, generator fuel, and some canned Spam (hah!) in case things got dicier towards the end of next week. -sammie

[DrRalph]

Quarter says it stays NE of Abaco and brushes Cape Hatteras as a Cat 1 . Abakimmy, will you take that bet?;)

[vharrison]

Living in Hurricane Alley, it would drive me nuts to watch a storm this early in it's path. Nothing you can do to stop them, just be prepared when they hit.

[Wonkee]

I heard a local talking about the lack of fruit on the trees being a good sign of a slow hurricane season. If that is true this one should be uneventful. The mangoe trees are almost all empty, the pears "alvacadoes" have fruit, but not as much as last year, and the Plumb trees have only a few here and there. I sure hope the trees are showing true.

[vharrison]

That is an interesting theory. I think we all look for any sign it will be a slow season, but sometimes there is no rhyme or reason to Hurricane Season. (did Buffet say that?)lol

[SamFamAustin]

Gosh I guess that's why I put it on the Rant, Vharrison. As DrRalph notes, the track and intensity of tropical storms is a very highly developed form of gambling, in addition to attracting some interested weather amateurs like myself. But trust me, nobody wants the damage and hurt from a hurricane landfall. I apologize if I bummed you out.

With on-line web resources now, one can even link to graphics from conventional satellites and special ones known as MODIS, TRIMM, AGIS, and others. About 28 models each involving terrabytes of data are run at least once a day, if not twice. The resources to do all this probably costs billions of dollars.

And occasionally, I call them right, such as when a large cluster of thunderstorms turned into Hurricane Humberto last year, setting a record from going from a thunderstorm to a Category 1 hurricane within 12 hours, a truly remarkable thing so close to the land. Nobody predicted that except yours truly here. The way I look at it, I'm 25 cents ahead of the game! The other 99 percent of the time, I'm a loser...

[Wonkee]

I was reading a book ""Blind Man's Bluff" about Submarine warfare during the cold war. A civilian scientist working for the Pentagon named John P. Craven.used a system where he had several navy men make bets on where a soviet sub had gone down. The bets were placed in a complex theorem developed by a man named Bayes Thomas Baye's theorem was based on subjective probability. Basically it took into account the Hunches that people have, the inate sense that some people just have. At the time it was looked at with little faith but after it was used several times with great sucess it was adopted by the US Government and is used for search and rescue and recovery projects. So that Vegas style betting is actually part of a very good system for proving a theory. using peoples natural ability to follow thier instinct. The sub by the way was found in the opposite direction that the Navy originally had suggested, but it was right where the Gamblers had led them.
Sam mabey you need to move to Vegas, and start Gambeling.

[SamFamAustin]

Cool story about Bayes Theorem there, wow Wonkee! This guy is like a genius ... but honest, I was taught as a kid not to gamble with hard money. I'll raise you a bucket of sand and if ya push me, a beer or a Coke and maybe a sand-dollar ... maybe another two wild land crabs at most! :D

[culp]

In some circles, that "innate sense" is considered to be in the catagory of being psychic. It's very interesting.

[HALF-A-HAMIAN]

I think you've seen too many episodes of NUMB3RS!!!

[SamFamAustin]

In some circles, that "innate sense" is considered to be in the catagory of being psychic. It's very interesting.

The real "experts" are the locals who can tell a tropical storm way more than 100 miles away. The clouds look different and the fish act funny, and sometimes the birds feed in in a frenzy and vanish somewhere in an hour, not a single bird in the sky.

Funny thing is, these locals are the same ones who won't leave their old houses and docks even in an evacuation. But I am almost sure they can predict a tropical storm better than anybody ... they are closer to nature.

Unfortunately, the oral history of such near-psychic local people is not well documented as I know. The Hemingway's 'Old Man and the Sea' was a good experiment in this kind of thing.

[Island Daze]

Dr i hope you are soo wrong

[vharrison]

Gosh I guess that's why I put it on the Rant, Vharrison.


Sam, I did not mean to imply I thought is was silly to watch them this early, I think it is cool that you enjoy tracking them. I did that for a number of years, soon as they came off the coast of Africa, I was on them. In the early years, I tracked them out of fear. These days, hurricanes are just another part of my life, nothing to get too worked up about.
Oh, and the thing about the birds and the clouds, that is true.

[oudi14]

12 years ago, we had another Bertha. Can't remember how far east it formed, but it came about July 10. It was a Cat 2, we were all battened up, and it turned at the last minute, and passed about 60 miles east of Hope Town. We just got gale force winds. [I refuse to say tropical storm force] That year was active, we had several near misses, and it was just a portent of things to come. Unfortunately, all the Florida boaters left ahead of the storm [not that I blame them] and Abaco's economy lost about a month of their business. I hope that doesn't happen again.

[vharrison]

Abaco's economy lost about a month of their business. I hope that doesn't happen again.

That is one of the worst things about Hurricanes, they threaten, the tourists leave (here, they are ordered to leave) and then they turn. Well, the turning part is good, the loss of business is not.

[culp]

I think you've seen too many episodes of NUMB3RS!!!


Never heard of it, but I just had a 'sense' that you wouldn't buy that idea.;)

[Abakimmy]

Ralph, I'm a little pre-occupied right now, and therefore haven't really paid much attention to it, except to note that there are a few days yet before we MUST pay attention. My "experience" tells me it will fish (stay out to sea). North of Abaco and not really close enough to Hatteras to do anything but kick up some good surf. We will resume the banter in a few days when I sign back in!

[SamFamAustin]

Interesting point ... if a storm passes off the coast, no landfall and no evacuations, surfers from all over the world will converge on the good breaks. It is probably millions in extra tourist dollars, although I've never seen a study on it. Sometimes the break is fantastic from Florida and then all the way up to Cape Cod, a "nice" storm about 200 miles off the coast.

The only bummer is the erosion. I've seen storm waves cut out like 3-4 feet of sand straight down. Makes beach walking at night VERY interesting! :eek:

[Wonkee]

I have a friend from VA beach watching this one. He said if it is only going to Skirt Abaco, he may come down to surf. IF it falls on a weekend, during the second week of the month. He is a fireman and has to wait for a 4 day weekend. If it hits just right though he will be here. if not he will be praying for it to come in close in NC, and VA to get some waves there. I almost want it to come close so we can hang out. IBut for the Abaco economy sake I hope it stays away.

[Wonkee]

Cool story about Bayes Theorem there, wow Wonkee! This guy is like a genius ... but honest, I was taught as a kid not to gamble with hard money. I'll raise you a bucket of sand and if ya push me, a beer or a Coke and maybe a sand-dollar ... maybe another two wild land crabs at most! :D

Ill bet you I can make you gamble by the end of the week....
and when your getting into land crabs, your too rich for my blood.

[SamFamAustin]

Ill bet you I can make you gamble by the end of the week...

Doc's got a quarter riding on Bertha and now you got a side thang for two land crabs, you guys play rough on this here forum! I have a quarter in my pocket and a bunch of large land crab holes down the street, so I'm game.

OK, I looked at the hurricane models and expert stuff and I don't know what to think. Now it's looking like a Bermuda storm, a perty one (see picture).

I guess you win, Wonkee, 'cause I have to counter Doc's offer - twenty five cents that says Bertha will not hit Cape Hatteras. Indian poker style!

[Marty]

I'm with you Sammie. I don't think this one will hit the US. Bermuda better start preparing tho...

[Charlotte Couple]

Since we are heading to Hatteras Island this weekend, the chances of a direct hit on the Outer Banks just went up significantly, but I like the projected track I've seen, which is more of a fish storm, with a chance of a hit on Bermuda.

[DrRalph]

Looks like I made a bad bet, I think I gotta send Sammie a quarter. NHC has Bertha going to Bermuda. Stay tuned

[papanasty]

Hey Doc what can ya do with a quarter today? I'd rather have the land crab I'll eat the biters and my wife will eat the rest she loves that crab fat. looks like Bertha is heading north Papanasty :eek:

[Charlotte Couple]

4:35 update: Bertha has rapidly increased from Cat 1 to Cat 3, with winds of 115 mph (or is it knots?). Projected path puts it hitting Bermuda this weekend.

[Island Daze]

Fish storm, Charlotte coouple have fun and lets hope for good wether this week.

[SamFamAustin]

I hope you have great weather this week and weekend on the Hatteras, beautiful spot. It's just drying out here after getting 7 to 10 inches of rain. We're starting to get cabin fever pretty bad. I've already prompted a few offshore captains to go out as soon as the waves are below 3 feet, will pay gas shares, it's getting that bad. Unusual year to say the least!

[theKurp]

Regarding Bermuda, I found this on bermuda-online.org:


Hurricanes

In the event of hurricane forecasts, see special Hurricane (http://www.hurricane.bm/) links to the National Hurricane Center in the USA or The Weather Channel (http://www.weather.com/).
Studies conducted by the Bermuda Weather Service found that from 1609 to the present day, devastating storms affect the Island every six to seven years. Our tropical cyclone, or hurricane, season is from May through November, with an average of one storm passing within 180 nautical miles of the Island every year.
Hurricanes are severe subtropical or tropical storm with heavy rains and intense winds which blow in a large circular motion around a center "eye." Hurricane season in the Atlantic officially runs for six months, from June 1 to November 30. Most hurricanes occur in August, September and October. Bermuda is usually quite well protected by its reefs but high waves on top of a storm surge can cause problems in low lying areas close to the sea.
When hurricanes strike, their damage to hotels and private dwelling houses is often superficial compared to other places. One major reason is because by law all buildings must be solidly built out of Bermuda limestone or concrete blocks. But Bermuda often gets electrical outages from gale force winds. This means no power for sometimes hours or days or weeks - and no water from underground tanks in local homes. Their only way to get water for basins, baths, sinks, showers and toilets is by electrical pumps from water tanks. Also, telephones can be out for weeks - and cable TV for well over a month, as in September 2003.

If the hurricane does hit Bermuda I hope that everyone finds themselves safe from harm and impacted as little as reasonably possible.

[Charlotte Couple]

Now it appears the storm will weaken and go well east of Bermuda. Strictly a fish storm, nothing to worry about, unless you're aboard a vessel at sea.

[Wonkee]

I have seen them stall and change direction before, its never wrong to be prepared. until it is past and calmed down I would have the supplies ready, and stand by with the shutters. At least have them made and know where they are.

[theKurp]

The oddest tracking I can remember was Hurricane "Wrong Way" Lenny back in 1999. It went almost in a direct line from west to east - which is unusual in itself - but also reversed direction at one point before turning around and heading back on an easterly track.

[SamFamAustin]

Well I'll be - you're right!

Reminds me of an Olympics relay race in the 1970's where a guy named Puttamyns (or some spelling like that) took the baton ... and ran the opposite direction! And fast, too. He would have won if he was pointed the right way.

"Wrong Way Puttamyns" became our long distance track team mascot after that. Fortunately we had a barefoot Australian aborigine that could run like a cheetah for 16 miles, so we did pretty good.