Future of Abaco

[DrRalph]

Two issues that could have a profound impact on the future of Abaco got brief mention in Willy Landham's excellent thread "What Would You Do?" They are: the possibility of the US government allowing tourist trade with Cuba, and rising sea level. Do you think that an open Cuba will divert tourism away from Abaco? Do you think Abaco (and the rest of the Bahamas) are in jeopardy of loosing significant land mass to rising water? I would be particularly interested to hear if some of you old-time Abaconians can tell if your coastline is disappearing.

Try to keep US politics out of this, let's focus on science and the social issues.

[Henz]

I have never been to cuba obviously, but my father-in-law has when he was in teh military..He actually HONEYMOONED in cuba. He said it was nice, but thats about it. I really cant picture it. I would think that it has a Long was to go in order to become a US tourist destination..For one thing it has to lose the bad wrap and the only way of doing it is for people to actually venture there on vacation etc and then reporting back like the Abaco Forum's do.

[Patti Puzo]

Pre-Castro, wasn't Cuba all about large resorts and casinos? It seems like it would just be another version of what Abaco is not....IMHO.
Patti P.

[Chuck M.]

I have some experience with Communist countries having lived in Europe before the fall of the Iron Curtain......not my idea of a vacation spot, but I agree with Patti......if I wanted big resorts and casinos I wouldn't be going to the Abacos in the first place. But I do believe they will be a competitor to those places in the Bahamas and the Caribbean that do......

[Henz]

huh, guess I never realized that it was like that..I would love to see some pics.... Iagree, if it is like that the true Abaconians out there will stay away, although those who vacation at those places that are currently like that probably will try the new experience out.

[MotuIti]

On the Cuba issue: It will no doubt attract tourism and the curious traveler feeding on the tales of Hemmingway times. But I don't suspect it will take away from the Abaco tourist trade. Many Abaco regulars will go once but will not turn Cuba into a second home. Also, unless one is fluent in Spanish, he or she will be pretty much limited to the tourist spots and resorts already existing on the Peninsula de Hicacos at Varadero. Havana too of course.

In summary many Abaco regulars will no doubt go once and return to Abaco. As for the one time Abaco visitor, how can you count the ones that are not coming now, and heading to the Caribbean or even Nassau?

On rising waters (Global Warning): I

[Patti Puzo]

I can't help but wonder, though, when you mention the point about Spanish....if that would even play into a decision.
We are comfortable when vacationing in Mexico.
Having retired from the local public school district - we were encouraged to take spanish courses, and become somewhat comfortable speaking the basics of the spanish language.
My son-in-law is a police officer for one of the Denver suburbs, and was also encouraged to be able to communicate in spanish. Thank goodness he had completed 4 years in secondary school and college.
I know this is straying, but wanted to address that point.
Hope to see you more often Sandy!
Patti P.

[SamFamAustin]

Cuba. I know some people that went to Cuba via Mexico and they were treated like kings. The cars and appliances all seemed locked in the early 1960's, but the country is quite beautiful and not all about the old coastal cities. True, some of the "casas" where Hemmingway used to stay are falling down, and the country is basically poor as dirt. But the people seemed friendly as can be and loved the US dollars on the sly. At least that's the impression I got from friends and family.

If anything is political, it is when, how, and why Cuba opens up for the worldwide tourist market. I predict many years before the Bahamas has to fear any competition from there - but that is just a hunch.

Global Warming. I don't think many people would notice a rise in mean sea elevation by a few centimeters. That is because the wind, tide, storms, subsidence, and erosion has more of a profound impact on sea levels at this time. Suffice it to say is there is a rapid melting of the Arctic sheet ice, within a few years one might see some effects - the recent IPCC report noted that the sheet ice issue was not fully understood and could melt faster than the models predicted.

As some oceanographers and climatologists have stated, the Atlantic Oscillation might be more important at this point than the effect of glocal warming and CO2 heat trapping. Think of the oscillation as a giant whirlppol that starts in the Gulf of Mexico, wraps up the Atlantic to Iceland, and thence down to France (where in higher latitudes some palm trees even grow). Returning waters come back on the Trade winds which blow from the east, off Africa. Every 10 years or so the Oscillation changes in a "long-term circadian cycle." This warming effect, along with dust from the Sahara, is tough to contribute to coral bleaching, which is thought to already be present in the Abacos.

Good comment about living on a sandbar, rather than a Karst limestone / coral rock such as the Abaco cays. On many sandbar barrier islands in the US, erosion rates can exceed 10 feet per year (when averaged over 10 years to account for very large cyclones). Plus, the entire US Gulf Coast is sinking at 1-2 centimeters per year due to natural and oil extraction subsidence.

So my impression is that the Atlantic and Gulf US is in much more jeopardy. P.s., the blue holes of the Abacos are Karst sinkholes and caves. Cool, eh?
/sammie

[SamFamAustin]

Global warming not only causes warmer ground level air temperatures in some areas, it can lead to some freaky cold weather as well. I seem to recall that in 1887 or so it was reported that 40-foot water wells in Connecticut were still frozen solid in the month of June. As a geographer, I like to call global warming more like a "heat anomaly" because it is so much more descriptive.

[Spagna]

I was 12 years old when I saw the news item on TV about Castro taking over. I have always wanted to visit Cuba and will when the communists are out of power. Just looking at the charts it appears there are many small islands along the eastern end of the north coast. My wife and I would like to spend some time sailing those islands but I would not abandon the Bahamas. Actually I hope the casinos and mega resorts go somewhere other than the Bahamas so that they are not ruined. We have been to Nassau on Providence and don't like what is happening over the past 17 years..might as well go to Myrtle Beach or Hilton Head. We were in George Town, Exumas in March of '06 and even though there were over 400 boats in the harbor it still seemed like a small town. There was a mutual respect for the land and sea by the full time residents (800) and the cruisers (800). Abacos, Exumas, Andros etc will still get our dollars and our support for the culture.

On global warming, I've seen more evidence over the past 30 years that we are experiencing a climatalogical cycle that we have an insignificant ability to make worse or better. The barrier islands off Georgia, North and South Carolina have been moving west and east over 60 miles for millions of years. People building houses on them don't understand that. As far as rising sea levels I don't see any irrefutable evidence that any coastal city in the USA or Caribbean will be affected in this century only flawed computer model predictions. I spent 30 years in the computer industry and I know the limitations of those models.

[Abacoparrott]

As far as Ralph's question on the effect of rising sea levels, I'm not even gonna go there. Why? Because I don't think ANYONE knows absolutely. All speculation....good or bad.

As for the effect the opening of Cuba will have on Abaco? Well, very simply put, it can't help. Whenever you have more options there WILL be some dilution of the tourist dollars. However, I think the difference will be greater in the boating end of tourism than the tourists who fly in. I say this because I have several boating friends who are older than I who have been to Cuba. They tell me that Cuba has literally hundreds of offshore cays and islands that are beautiful. One of them can't wait til it opens up. He's been chomping at the bit for years.

Another major factor will be the "welcome" factor. If the Cubans treat the americans as if they are truly wanted then couple that with the natural beauty of the island and you have a formidable competitor. If they do a horrible job of welcoming tourists then all bets are off. Foodstuffs should be cheaper and more readily available in Cuba simply because of the huge land mass that allows them to "grow their own". Thus, the food, lodging, etc will be cheaper than the Bahamas. How important is this to the vacationing crowd? Well, I've heard all of the arguments regarding this. "All americans are rich enuff to afford it" and "if can't afford it then don't go" but everyone does have his/her own limit. So for the folks that are visiting Abaco that are barely getting there then Cuba might be a viable option for them. I really think it will eventually come down to service and the welcome mat. If the Cuban g'vt is smart, they will consult a "common group of American visitors" to find out what Americans want. Make these findings their modus Operandi and they will be successful. Will I jump the Abaco ship and head to Cuba? No. But I will be anxiously awaiting a "trip report" from my more adventurous friends upon their return.....Ken

[DrRalph]

The Museum of Science in Daytona Beach has an exhibit that contains artifacts from an Indian village that date back about 6000 years. The material was found by divers about a mile offshore in 60 feet of water. If you do the math, it appears that the the seashore has migrated west at about one foot per year.

The pictures below were taken a few days ago about two miles south of the Flagler Beach Fishing Pier; Flagler is about 25 miles north of Daytona, and about 300 nm NW of Marsh Harbour. During the storm seasons of '04 and '05 there was substantial beach erosion, SR A1A was undercut and closed several times. You can see they are trying different solutions, from large granite boulders to sheets of plastic. The consultants say that, despite their efforts, A1A will probably wash out in the next few years.

Spagna's comment about the "migration" of barrier islands over time is well taken. I've spoken to old-timers who have lived in Flagler for fifty-plus years, and they are convinced they can see that the sea level has risen, and that the one-foot-per-year encroachment is accurate.

The Bahamas/Turks-Caicos (as well as the Florida Keys and coastal Florida) are particularly vulnerable to rising seas. I won't see it in my life, but I do think that the time will come within a generation or two when flat coastal areas will have to contend with this phenomenon. I think it's real, and I think it's here to stay. I wonder to what extend the Bahamian government acknowledges rising seas, and is there any consideration or related planning?