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Abaco Sportsman Boating, Sailing, Fishing, and Diving in Abaco

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  #1  
Old 11-23-2008, 06:54 PM
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PELLUCID PELLUCID is offline
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Weather info for Gulf Stream crossing

The weather service has a new page of mesoscale analysis up which may be helpful to those planning to do the jump across the stream. It's updated hourly. I think the wind and water temperature screens are especially useful for figuring out what your short-term chop and current conditions are likely to be. Here's the Miami link:

http://www.srh.weather.gov/mfl/analysis/?type=analysis

Here's the Melbourne link, which is not nearly as user-friendly and requires you to know a lot of weather forecast terminology:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/ARPS.html

If anyone has a better link to info north of Palm Beach, post it here.
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Old 11-23-2008, 07:28 PM
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Bob - when do you head back?
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Old 11-23-2008, 08:00 PM
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Thanks Pellucid...jb
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Old 11-23-2008, 08:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PELLUCID View Post
The weather service has a new page of mesoscale analysis up which may be helpful to those planning to do the jump across the stream. It's updated hourly. I think the wind and water temperature screens are especially useful for figuring out what your short-term chop and current conditions are likely to be. Here's the Miami link:

http://www.srh.weather.gov/mfl/analysis/?type=analysis

Here's the Melbourne link, which is not nearly as user-friendly and requires you to know a lot of weather forecast terminology:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/ARPS.html

If anyone has a better link to info north of Palm Beach, post it here.

What about this: Southest US Marine Weather.
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Old 11-30-2008, 02:58 PM
EEReddick EEReddick is offline
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Angry NOAA Forecast

Can anyone explain why NOAA always underestimates wind speeds. NOAA is showing 15 knots out of the south and the wind is blowing 25 knots with gusts to 40 knots out of the south. They seem to get the direction right but not the speeds.
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Old 11-30-2008, 04:22 PM
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Oh easy! Weathermen don't have windows anymore!

I'm surprised you didn't ask why the waves are always bigger too.

Naw, what the weathermen have are several tools such as three kinds computer models with three flavors each, radar, weather stations and buoys, and central offices such for storms (Oklahoma), wildfires fires, drought, remote sensing (NASA), air quality (EPA), waves (NDBC), and hurricanes (NHC Florida). They're even tied in with the national emergency broadcast system and the Amber Alert. Don't ask me what an Amber Alert does for the weather, though!

OK, these predictions come out in the middle of the night at "Zero Zulu" which actually means about 0100 on the East Coast and about 0200 Central Standard Time. These are updated with small tweaks by the morning shift that arrives at 0700 or 0800. Other updates are only done if needed. As the pressure gradients shift as the day progresses, the wind and waves can deviate quite a bit. Minor updates are NEVER done for such tweaks, although issuing a Storm Watch or Small Craft Warning is a big thing.

So now you know. The 5 o'clock evening weather forecast is over 15 hours old when presented on TV, a major problem, and a reason why many TV stations now require accredited meteorologists.

Ugh-oh, Nippers Alert (a-oooga, a-ooga, a-ooga).
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Old 11-30-2008, 05:01 PM
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Originally Posted by EEReddick View Post
Can anyone explain why NOAA always underestimates wind speeds. NOAA is showing 15 knots out of the south and the wind is blowing 25 knots with gusts to 40 knots out of the south. They seem to get the direction right but not the speeds.
Here is their forecasting device, make one for yourself, you can do just as well, just buy some darts and have at it.
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"The Bahamas is one of the wealthiest Caribbean countries with an economy heavily dependent on tourism...Tourism together with tourism-driven construction and manufacturing accounts for approximately 60% of GDP and directly or indirectly employs half of the archipelago's labor force."
from US Central Intelligence Agency 2008 Factbook
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Old 11-30-2008, 05:02 PM
EEReddick EEReddick is offline
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Gulf Stream Crossing

The other night my wife and I were crossing from Naples to Key West on our Sailboat. We knew of the cold front forecast ... 20-25 knot winds from the North. What we "got" was 35-45 knots for 12 hours .... and XM weather was showing winds from the East at 5 knots .... You gotta admit that is a lot of disparity.

Now I will admit that many, to most, times the wind/waves/direction all coincide with what is "actually" happening.... but sometimes it is so off you have to ask yourself "What the Hell!"
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Old 12-01-2008, 01:37 AM
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The black pie that DrRalph has in his weather wheel, with the question mark?

So far, the computer models are actually performing better than ever. They show fronts and low pressure and all that very well, being dynamical models.

The intensity models are NOT any good.

Intensity means how hard the wind blows, and essentially measures kinetic energy. In other words, the models can predict hurricanes within a 70 mile landfall instead of over plus or minus 200, but we can't tell you if the storm is going to blow up into a monster or turn into a wimp, aside from some educated guesses. Weirder yet, the models that predict intensity the best are horrible and completely off the page about where the storm will travel.

Stop laughing DrRalph!

So your complaint is one I hear a lot from all kinds of people including mariners at sea. Back a long time ago, you only had the benefit of a barometer to tell you what was happening. This is actually an extremely good instrument because winds are a function of barometric pressure, although there is some lag time.

What bothers me in this day an age is that with Internet, XM-Sirius radio, radar, VHF, marine weather radio, weather fax, GPS, and all that high technology, people manage to get dismasted, sunk, or run their boat up on a freaking island or jetty. The mariners of the old days knew that little storms could become big ones, and visa versa, but somehow we lost that connection.
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